OpenAI is still wrestling with valuation, Anthropic is already heading to the public market

Title: OpenAI Is Still Debating Its Valuation, While Anthropic Has Already Charged Toward the Public Market

The global AI race hit a landmark turning point today. Anthropic, long seen as the "chaser," has suddenly taken the lead at the IPO table. According to the latest report from SemiAnalysis, the company confidentially filed its IPO application on June 1 this year, with expectations set for the...

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Title: OpenAI Is Still Debating Its Valuation, While Anthropic Has Already Charged Toward the Public Market The global AI race hit a landmark turning point today. Anthropic, long seen as the "chaser,

Title: OpenAI Is Still Debating Its Valuation, While Anthropic Has Already Set Its Sights on the Public Market

The global AI race hit a symbolic turning point today.

Anthropic, long perceived as the "chaser," has suddenly taken the lead at the IPO table. According to the latest report from SemiAnalysis, the company confidentially filed for an IPO on June 1 this year, with projected Q3 profits exceeding $1 billion. Meanwhile, OpenAI's IPO plans have been pushed back to 2027.

The balance of attack and defense is subtly shifting.

"Profitability" Is the Best IPO Prospectus

Many people still think of Anthropic as "Claude is nice, but it doesn't seem as popular as GPT." But financial data doesn't lie.

Using a bottom-up Tokenomics model, SemiAnalysis broke down revenue by product SKU, service tier, and customer type. The conclusion: Anthropic's business model and profit margins are far healthier than outsiders assume, with strong pricing power that can sustain continued investment in new models while maintaining an edge over both open-source and closed-source rivals.

More critically, the company has found a clear path to profitability. The rapid adoption of Claude Code in software development has solidified Anthropic's position in the B2B market, making it the frontrunner in AI model commercialization by 2026. Combined, Anthropic and OpenAI's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is approaching $100 billion—and Anthropic's share is growing at a visibly rapid pace.

An interesting detail: Analysts have even suggested that if Anthropic continues to execute well, its long-term market cap target could reach $6 trillion. That number sounds wild, but in the context of the AI infrastructure race, it's not entirely baseless speculation.

Why Is Anthropic Moving First?

Three key factors are at play.

First, the profitability window. OpenAI may have a louder brand, but it also carries a heavier cost structure—the expense of training and running GPT-5.5 series models is astronomical. Anthropic chose a more pragmatic route: build products that make money first, then talk about scaling. Claude Code is the perfect example. It doesn't chase the extreme of general intelligence like GPT-5.5; instead, it goes deep in the vertical of coding, and that's exactly what made it the key that unlocks enterprise spending.

Second, independence from ecosystem reliance. Note this detail: none of Anthropic's revenue growth across its logged-in products depends on Microsoft's account system. This means its customer acquisition barriers have been proactively dismantled—it doesn't need to be tied to the Microsoft ecosystem like OpenAI does. Independence is a plus in capital markets—investors are more willing to back companies that "call their own shots."

Third, the "catfish effect" of the IPO. Analysts point out that Anthropic's early IPO will force OpenAI to disclose its financials publicly. That could be awkward for OpenAI—when your competitor reaches the public market before you, and you're still haggling over your valuation floor, investor patience wears thin.

OpenAI's Predicament

By contrast, OpenAI's IPO path looks rather indecisive.

Since last year, OpenAI's IPO plans have been bouncing between "rumored" and "denied." First came reports of holding firm on a trillion-dollar valuation floor, then talk of delaying to next year, and now rumors of pushing it to 2027. Every delay adds more uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Anthropic has been quietly making big moves beyond just the IPO. Its commercial customer count already surpassed OpenAI's last year (34.4% vs. 32.3%), key chip team members have been poached, and now it's first to kick off the listing process.

A question worth deeper reflection: When a company transitions from "disruptor" to "being chased," can its organizational structure and strategic pace still maintain the agility of its startup days? OpenAI's organizational turmoil is plain for all to see—from Altman's dramatic return, to the departure of multiple core researchers, to the exit of the chief futurist. Every personnel shakeup chips away at market trust.

The AI Industry Enters the "Profitability Race" Phase

Anthropic's early IPO move sends a major signal: the AI industry is shifting from a "burn-rate race" to a "profitability race."

Over the past two years, the dominant theme in AI was "who trained the bigger model" and "who raised more money." But capital markets ultimately demand returns. When Grok 4.5 enters the market at one-tenth the price of competitors, when Anthropic proves it can make money with real profits, when vibe-coding tools like Lovable see their valuations soar to $13.2 billion—investor attention is shifting from "who has the most imagination" to "who can make money first."

If Anthropic's IPO succeeds, it could well become a watershed moment for the AI industry. It proves one thing: on this track, the first to turn a profit isn't necessarily the first to exit, but the first to go public is definitely the first to secure a ticket to the next round of competition.

One More Open Question

After Anthropic's early IPO, how will OpenAI respond?

Will it accelerate its own IPO process, even at a lower valuation? Or will it keep burning cash on models, betting that GPT-6 can create a generational gap? Or will it take a completely different path—say, bringing in more strategic investors, or accepting an external acquisition?

Whatever the choice, one thing is certain: the AI table is being reshuffled faster than anyone anticipated.